lørdag den 9. oktober 2010

EUropa med en milliard indbyggere

Måske har man bare fattet, at hvis Europa skal konkurrere med Kina, så skal vi op og være omkring mia. mennesker. Man må da håbe, at der er en nogenlunde rationel årsag, omend hvis vi skal konkurrere med Kina, så skal lønningerne og rettighederne, demokratiet drosles noget kraftigt ned,

England viser vejen for resten af Europa:

Office for National Statistics shows how the population is expected to rise if different rates of immigration are sustained over the next 25 years.

It indicates that numbers will reach 70million in 2027 if net migration – the number of immigrants arriving in the country minus those who leave – continues at last year’s level...

if net migration remains at last year’s level, will mean an extra 300,000 in the population between 2008 and 2027.

Another 300,000 extra will be added by natural increase, and possibly more because newly-arrived migrants tend to have higher birthrates than long-standing residents.

Det største sociale politiske eksperiment siden sovjet er i gang, men modsat sovjet mangler vi en fælles ideologisk platform. Det vil kræve drakoniske tiltag, at oprette den fælles platform, men siden alternativet er at droppe det store ideologiske projekt, skal disse drakoniske tiltag ikke udelukkes, de er faktisk på vej i små strøvise doser.

Citat fra Christopher Caldwells "reflections on the revolution in Europa":

African Indians, who arrived in Britain from Kenya and Uganda in the late 60's and early 70's now has roughly the same birthrate as native born Britons. But sometimes there is no such convergance. Pakistanis and Bangladeshis, groups that have been in Britain even longer than African Indians, still have birthrates far above the national average.
Men vi har meget at hente, hvis vi skal følge genistreger såsom denne fra United Nations Population Division:

Scenario VI keeps the potential support ratio at its 1995 value of 4.3 persons aged 15-64 for each person aged 65 or older. In order to keep the potential support ratio constant at that level, the European Union would need 701 million immigrants from 1995 to 2050, an average of 12.7 million per year. Also, as under scenario IV, the irregularities in the age structure of the population would cause fluctuations in the annual number of migrants required to keep the potential support ratio constant. The peak levelswould be attained in 2030-2035, with 20.3 million net immigrants per year. By 2050, out of a total population of 1.2 billion, 918 million, or about 75 per cent, would be post-1995 immigrants or their descendants.
Det er selvfølge kun teori, men vi skal jo have nok unge til at at forsørge de gamle, og så skal vi ikke skelne til om, vi faktisk har arbejde til så mange mennesker på et kontinent, hvor omkring 30 pct. er uden for arbejdsmarkeder i den arbejdsdygtige alder allerede nu.

0 kommentarer: